Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less Than +10?

Last week, I said Hillary Clinton's got the message that speaks most directly to Pennsylvanians. Even within the past week, the economy has continued to destabilize, revealing malfeasance by corporate actors and mismanagement by government regulators. We've seen this before - as our economy transitioned from a manufacturing base, Pennsylvanians were disproportionately left behind.

As a result, we're skeptical of Wall Street magic and sky-high promises. So Hillary's speaking the right language, and this week Obama started as well. A bunch of reporters picked up on his shift from talking to Pennsylvanians about lofty dreams to talking about more traditional issues.

That, plus his rigorous campaigning, has helped to drop Clinton's lead to a mere 5 points. At least one poll actually shows Obama ahead in PA. So its turned into a real race and my big question is this: if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, can she afford to win by less than 10-12 points?

I'd argue that she can't. Her momentum is already fading and a less-than-stellar win in PA would jeopardize her chances in the few remaining states on the map. A 5-point win is not enough - she's got to sweep this thing, and at least this week, it looks like Obama's gained the big Mo.

** Greg Palmer is the Publisher of Keystone Politics and the former Technology Advisor to Rep. Henry Waxman's Oversight and Government Reform Committee.



Display:


Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

re-addressed some of your delegate numbers... not allowing Clinton to break 63% in any district, since (until this point) Hispanics are the only demographic she has done better with that 63%.  Other than Mississippi Whites, which were heavily R cross-over.  I'm Thinking that a win in the 7% range would only net her 3-4 delegates, where do you see the delegate breakdown as the race tightens.  I put it at about 4% Obama Loss = Obama delegate win.


Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.
by CardBoard on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:10:51 PM EST

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

  I'm not sure I agree.  You're right that Hillary won't break 63% of whites statewide.  But in certain very white districts I could see her getting about 70% of the white vote.  In other parts of the state she might win only 50% of the white vote or less - particularly in the Philly suburbs.  I'm not saying it will happen, but it might.  White opinions differ greatly across the state.


Jim Oberweis
by cilerder86 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:25:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If we know one thing about Hillary Clinton its ... (none / 0)

that she constantly has surprised PEOPLE LIKE YOU...


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:34:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If we know one thing about Hillary Clinton its (2.00 / 1)

  Yeah, she surprised me by being such a lousy campaigner.  I was convinced she had it locked up on Feb. 5.  


Jim Oberweis
by cilerder86 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 06:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If we know one thing about Hillary Clinton its (none / 0)

Me, too. I assured people in October that Clinton would win the nomination and presidency.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:39:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If we know one thing about Hillary Clinton its (none / 0)

Me, too. I assured people in October that Clinton would wrap up the nomination quickly.  Boy was I surprised when she started losing so badly so that it is now impossible for her to win a majority of pledged delegates.


We care about politics because we know politics matters for people's lives and opportunities.
by politicsmatters on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I can see (none / 0)

Hillary possibly getting 60% of the Pennsylvania White Woman vote, but much more than 50% of the state wide White Male vote seems like a huge stretch.
Disfavor with Hillary Clinton has always been strong, and her likability, in light of the Tuzla Ariport comment, the Hospital comment, and her attempt to run on Wright, is dropping like a brick.
All she has left if her name recognition, nostalgia for the Clinton years, and her gender (in a party where 55-60% of the voters are women) working in her favor, and none of those factors are going to garner her any new votes.
Any Pennsylvania voters Hillary has lost since March 4th are probably firmly dissatisfied with her, and won't be voting for her in the Primary.
My thoughts on McCain: I have no desire to let that idiot fulfill his desire to "Bomb Iran"
by Otaku Saru on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 01:50:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (2.00 / 4)

The democratic race was effectively over when Obama won more contests on February 5 and then proceeded to win 11 straight for the rest of February.

Jonathan Alter of Newsweek was correct when he said Clinton should have dropped out for the sake of the party before the March 4 contests. Some things are just bigger than ourselves (like the party), but Clinton's ego got in the way. Now it's too late to withdraw, and I imagine she will stay in until June or beyond regardless of what happens in Pennsylvania.

For Clinton supporters who think Hillary still has a chance, please read the following:
http://the-independent13.blogspot.com/20 08/03/clinton-vs-obama-stats.html


by tomanderson13 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:57:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

I read it.  I'm still not convinced.


No candidacy is more important than the right to vote.
by hornplayer on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:23:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

Too bad hornplayer. Perhaps the Democratic party should split.


by tomanderson13 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:27:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (1.00 / 1)

I really want to thank all the obamadroids for their kind considerations that you graciously might consider our candidate be granted the opportunity to let democracy continue for 10 more contests. I am truly moved by your magnanimous gesture to us poor little supporters of Hillary.

Jon Stewart says it best....

http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index. jhtml?videoId=165227&title=dropping- hillary

Only in Obamanation is quitting considered showing ones strenght of character. It must be the yuppie in 'em.


by Newport News Dem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

You're welcome to disagree (sans name calling).


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 05:30:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Greg, I posted a Diary that (none / 0)

Newport News,

Forgiv is right. No need for name calling. As for Clinton staying in the race, I say go for it. But will she concede defeat at the end of the process?

And can you imagine if the roles were reversed and Obama was behind at this point? We would be naive to think Clinton and her supporters would not be calling for Obama to drop out. My original point was that I agreed with Jonathan Alter that the most opportune time was before the March 4 primaries.

Everyone talks about how Obama hasn't knocked her out decisively. Can you imagine having that conversation a year ago? Clinton was supposed to walk away with this without a scratch. Now she is fighting for (or ruining) her political career. It's clear that Clinton didn't plan beyond February 5, and Mrs. Clinton herself said it would be over on February 5. She was wrong.

The facts is da facts.
Hillary can't win.
http://the-independent13.blogspot.com/20 08/03/clinton-vs-obama-stats.html


by tomanderson13 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 06:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She Can't Afford to Win by Less Than 15% (none / 0)

If Hillary wins Pennsylvania by a narrower margin than 15% her credibility as a contender diminishes greatly.
 I don't see how she will be able to go on after a win that doesn't make up a signifigant portion of Obama's lead in pledged delegates.
McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.
by Lefty Coaster on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:14:05 PM EST

A 15% Win would be about a 25-26 Delegate Gain (none / 0)

for Hillary. That's the minumum necessary to make it a signifigant gain in delegates.


McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.
by Lefty Coaster on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A 15% Win would be about a 25-26 Delegate Gain (none / 0)

are you sure about that?  It seems like an awful lot of delegates.  Doesn't it depend more on districts than overall statewide margin?


by Destiny on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:32:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Greg's piece would not make recommended (none / 0)

on MyDD.   How and who selected it as an article.
With nothing to substantiate your claim, you are no more credible than NYT political reporting.
by blobert on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's an insult? (1.50 / 2)

Given the average quality of MyDD's recommended diary list as of late, that's hardly an insult.


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:04:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wasn't insulting the awesome diaries here (2.00 / 1)

I was wondering why a lead article would fall short.


by blobert on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:06:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Over your head. (1.33 / 3)

Whoosh.


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:09:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I wasn't insulting the awesome diaries here (none / 0)

Since you missed it the point was the quality is not a requirement for making the rec list here- what is required is being one of the cool kids...


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It looks to me like being on the Rec list (none / 0)

means thinking independently of the Daily Kos droids.
If to you, that's being cool, then you have excellent taste.

by blobert on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:35:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It looks to me like being on the Rec list (none / 0)

You keep the excellent taste.  I'm happier with the taste of victory.

See how progress we make when we're being nasty to each other?


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:37:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In real - not POLITICO - America.. (none / 0)

winning is winning and losing is losing..
If Hillary wins PA, she wins PA.. if she loses PA, she loses PA.

Thats it..

BTW I think many Obama-operatives are showing by their constant rudeness exactly what Hillary is fighting against.

Is they are the kind of people who will be Obama's administration if he wins, I really don't know what I will do if he wins the nomination. Honestly, although I disagree with their politics, the Republicans I know are FAR MORE RESPECTFUL of other people's opinions. (Of course, the Reps. I know are probably unusually civil ones.. not the angry Freepers, thank God.)

Are we sure that some Obamabots are not Freepers in disguise? They seem to be cut from the same cloth sometimes.

Maybe Karl Rove planned this whole thing out in a basement bunker somewhere... seriously..


Universal healthcare IS a core Democratic value
Without a REAL committment to it, we WON'T win in November.
by architek on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:42:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In real - not POLITICO - America.. (none / 0)

YOU made the rude comment.  I replied in kind and then pointed out that we should quit it.

If you think that republicans have anything resembling respect for other people's opinion you REALLY need to pay better attention.

You're not allowed to be gay.  You're not allowed to believe in DNRs (Terry Schiavo).  You have to be willing to inject christian fundamentalism into government. You cannot be trusted with a choice, but must function as a brood mare if you're a woman. The ACLU is communist in their estimation even though it seeks only to defend a document written by our founders.  Really architek, I have a hard time believing that you don't understand that accepting that party means accepting those things (even if you're only thinking about the nice ones when you pull the lever) .

You have some caricature in your mind on this one.  Or maybe it's a persecution complex, but Obama supporters are not the horrible assholes that you've got in your head.  I may be an asshole, but honestly look back at what I responded to.  I was not unprovoked.

"It looks to me like being on the Rec list (none / 0)

means thinking independently of the Daily Kos droids.
If to you, that's being cool, then you have excellent taste."

Those are your very rude words.  I replied.  That is all.

Gee maybe we shouldn't trust a Hilary staff to have any manners at all.  I honestly don't know what I'll do if she wins (apart from step outside to lay eyes on flying pigs for the first time).

Next time you're in the can take a deep sniff... that ain't the smell of roses.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 05:35:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In real - not POLITICO - America.. (2.00 / 1)

The winning is winning bit isn't so simple.  If she cannot pull off a large win (15% may not be enough) then she will not be able to compete in delegate count with what remains in the primary season.  She also will not be able to argue that we should switch metrics in the middle of the game and place unfair importance on popular vote because she's losing by around 800,000 in that metric already.

So, in this case, a win isn't enough.  It needs to be a very big win.  I would say 20% is the very least that is workable and even then she would have to turn things around in North Carolina and probably Oregon on what is a wholly inadequate budget with which to do that.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 05:46:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In real - not POLITICO - America.. (none / 0)

"If Hillary wins PA, she wins PA."

If you think that a +1% win is the same as a +25% win, then you simply don't understand the delegate system.

Here's a hint: It's quite different to the "winner-takes-all" system of the GE.


by Aris Katsaris on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's an insult? (none / 0)

Are we having a contest here as to which candidate's people can be snottier than the other?  Any point to this sniping?  Any point to smugly telling another candidate to leave the race?  Where does that leave your candidate's reputation for thoughtfulness?  What does it say about your judgment and his/hers?  


by mady on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A 15% Win would be about a 25-26 Delegate Gain (none / 0)

It's a rough estimate using Slate's delegate calculator.

http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/


McCain's occupation plan will achieve victory when it bestows liberty to the freedom loving people of Iraq and their freedom loving oil.
by Lefty Coaster on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:54:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A 15% Win would be about a 25-26 Delegate Gain (none / 0)

Slate's delegate calculator shows a 26 delegate gain on Obama for Clinton with a 16 point win.  

I think she has to win at least that much, to be credible; I think the real test on credibility is whether she has gained any ground between PA and NC.  

Using the same calculator, Obama could cancel out a 16% win in terms of delegates with a 62-38 win in NC.  Clinton is below 40% in the polls since 3-17 so that may not be out of reach.  

The more likely scenario, though, is that the polls continue to tighten -- as they always do when undecideds start making up their minds.  My guess is that Clinton wins PA by around 8%, about a 12 delegate pickup for her, which could be entirely offset by a 56-44 win by Obama in NC.  Both of those things seem pretty likely in my book -- indeed, it's likely that that scenario is optimistic from Clinton's perspective because I think Obama is more likely to win NC by 20 than Clinton is to win PA by 10.  


by Headlight on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:33:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the standard is the popular vote (none / 0)

I think she needs break 15%.  As the table below, from a post I did on Friday at openleft shows, the problem for Clinton is North Carolina.  To have any hope of winning the popular vote, she has to net significantly more votes out of PA than out of NC.  The problem is that Obama's lead in NC is so large (and this table was done before the Rassmussen poll showing Obama up 23) that this will be very hard to do.  


This table contains my popular vote prediction.  I predict turnout in PA and NC (and I am predicting VERY High turnout in PA) will make up well over half of the remaining popular votes.  


by fladem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:18:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If the standard is the popular vote (none / 0)

Yes, if things were different they wouldn't be the same.

The race for nomination is a contest measured in delegates.  You don't see football teams claiming that their most recent loss should be overturned since they had more yards of total offense than the opponent.  That's because football is a contest measured in points not offensive yards.  Everyone knows that.  The same applies here.

If a frog had wings it wouldn't bump its ass so much.  So what?


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree that pledged delegates (none / 0)

is the standard.  But you are missing my point:
if Clinton can't win the popular vote than BY HER OWN TERMS she should not win the nomination.  

The pressure after NC and Indiana on May 6th to withdraw is going to become enourmous in part because of this math.


by fladem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 05:14:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But the standard is NOT the popular vote (none / 0)

While this popular vote idea has become the last straw that Clinton can grasp at (and as far as I'm concerned she can continue to grasp at it as long as she wishes) it's a really false measurement in the context of the party primaries.  There is too much variability from state to state both in terms of who is qualified to participate (dems only, modified open or open) and the process (primaries or caucuses.)  Primaries are generally far less representative of the general population than general elections (and caucuses even less so).  The superdelegates are mostly elected officials, former elected officials, or political professionals.  I would guess that they will recognize the scent of desperation the Clinton camp has about it.  The unelectability argument is falling flat.  Her superdelegate lead is almost gone now (down to 25 now, according to Democratic Convention Watch).  Obviously, her original campaign strategies -- her overwhelming funding lead and the inevitability of her winning -- are in tatters.  If anyone could have won the nomination base on these two factors alone, Hillary Clinton could.  

Now the question is only how long will she play the hand out.  I'm now convinced that she really has no interest in being reelected to the Senate or any other office than president.  She isn't getting herself set up for another run for president in hopes of Obama losing to McCain -- she's seriously damaged goods for many Democratic voters.  She has every right to continue as long as there is a realistic chance that she could win.  I think that chance will evaporate in the first couple weeks of June.  


by Headlight on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 09:34:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But the standard is NOT the popular vote (none / 0)

I'm not sure she makes it into June.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't agree - what is BO doing losing (none / 0)

a giant and critical state like PA by 10+ points, if he is such a great candidate?

Clinton needs to go to the Puerto Rico and the convention.  We need to know the full popular vote count.


by Molee on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 07:10:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't agree - what is BO doing losing (2.00 / 1)

You do realize that losing a democratic state to another democrat in a primary means exactly nothing about what will happen in the GE don't you.  Or do you expect California, New Jersey and New York to go red in the fall too?


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 10:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Links please (none / 0)

Are you going to include any links in this story?  The most reliable pollster of the season, SUSA, has her up 12 in Penn.


TexasDarlin blog
by TexasDarlin on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:14:29 PM EST

Re: Links please (none / 0)

Here's RCP's aggregate of polls in PA:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/ 2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democrati c_primary-240.html
by ChrisKaty on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:16:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Links please (none / 0)

Well then provide links as to why SUSA is the most reliable poller...Seems to me Obama's linked spreadsheet has been the most accurate.


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:20:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

it's got to be over 15% IMO. That's if she's to ever claim the popular vote lead.

because if you consider that N.C. has added close to  1/2 million residents in the past 4 years to PA's 150k, a sub 10% win for her in PA will be highly offset by an Obama 20%+ victory in N.C.


!
by alex100 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:15:36 PM EST

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

PA is Clinton's big chance to make up ground in the popular vote too -- if she wins by 10% or less, that pretty much ends her hopes of making the PV argument to superdelegates.


by ChrisKaty on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:15:52 PM EST

PA is under media assault (2.00 / 1)

NYT, cable news and network news have become 24/7 propaganda machines.

God would not have a chance under these circumstances.


by blobert on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:18:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (2.00 / 5)

I'm losing track, which vast conspiracy is out to get her this time?  The right? The left? Every major media outlet? Men in general?


by mikeinsf on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:28:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

m.o.n.e.y. (2.00 / 1)


by blobert on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:21:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: m.o.n.e.y. (none / 0)

Nice hat.


Government derives its power from those that it governs.
by lockewasright on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (none / 0)

Its sad that you would sarcastically throw out the 90s 'right wing conspiracy' against the Clintons b/c you support another candidate for president. Republicans were undoubtedly on a campaign during the 90s meant to destroy everything Clinton. I'm not going to even waste time citing the historic evidence underlining this fact. It's unfortunate that so many liberals have now adopted the same repug tactics in their own quest to anoint their leader and do away with Hillary's presidential challenge.


by corunner26 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:22:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What sad is (2.00 / 1)

Hillary's "W" style campaign tactics.

Starting with the 'inevitability" meme, the you must be loyal to me or else meme, the destroy your opponenent tactic and all the rest, and the I can do it because I have rich connections meme.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (none / 0)

I guess what I'm tired of is the 'persecution' meme.

It's true -- in the 90s there was a "vast right wing conspiracy" against them. It had a name, "The Arkansas Project" and courtesy of Richard Mellon-Scaife, it was well funded and successful as a stain-maker (no pun intended) on the Clinton legacy.

But now that Hillary sees fit to give Scaife the respect he has never once deserved, we hear how the media, the democratic establishment, the "Obamabots," misogynists and woodland pixies are all banding together to bring her down due to her dangerous ideas, liberalism, centricism, electability, hatred of democracy, whiteness, ovary-having.

It's exhausting. It's true they've been under attack for ages. But when is it an "attack" and when is it an attempt to use an 'attack' as a motivator? People talk about her abilities as a fighter, but one of the best arguments I've ever heard for that was "and how is all that fighting working out for them?"


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:29:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But Billary are lapdogs to Bilderberg...? (none / 0)

How can Hillary be a board member of a group dedicated to world domination and a victim of a conspiracy at the same time?

Lets be consistent here.  Ask yourself: why does Hillary want to be president so badly?  Its the Bilderbergs!!


by beermeister on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:54:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (none / 0)

Well, if God soesn't even stand a chance, it must be the Devil's work.  :)


Unseen, in the background, Fate was quietly slipping the lead into the boxing glove.
by fogiv on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 05:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So are you saying (none / 0)

1. that Clinton has absolutely no chance to win in PA?

Or

2. that if she does end up winning in PA, even by .5%, then she would be better than God?


by toom on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:40:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: So are you saying (none / 0)

The point is that winning PA is not enough; that she has to win big for it to be a meaningful victory in terms of continuing her campaign. I am not sure I agree with this, but that is the point of the post.


I read the body count out of the paper; now it's written all over my face.
by JDF on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, that media. (none / 0)

Is that the same media that spun a mere 2% Hillary win in New Hampshire into her astounding, upset comeback?


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:06:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh, that media. (2.00 / 1)

Yes, or the same media that kept saying CLINTON WINS even though Obama broke even or beat her in pledged delegates? (see Nevada, Texas, New Hampshire)


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:46:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (none / 0)

Don't forget the blogosphere.


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA is under media assault (none / 0)

If you really have it out for the mainstream media, then where do you get your news from?


The truth about McCain
by nstrauss on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 07:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A win is a win. End of story. (1.00 / 2)

Nice try at a re-frame, but it just won't wash.

Why don't you tell her to quit?  And tell her supporters to just shut up and die? That'll work just as well.


by No Blood for Hubris on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:20:33 PM EST

Re: A win is a win. End of story. (2.00 / 1)

If she wins every primary and caucus by 1% from here on, she wouldn't come close to having enough delegates to win the nomination.

When is a win not a win? When youre far behind and a small victory won't be nearly enough.


democracy!
by BlueGAinDC on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:24:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A win is a win. End of story. (2.00 / 2)

Not sure what you're really saying there. I said last week that I thought Obama would win, and this week I'm saying that it's a really tough road for her. And for reference, I'll be voting for Hillary, but I can still recognize that this is not an easy win for her.


by Greg Palmer on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:25:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She has to win with (2.00 / 1)

big numbers in all the remaining states to come close to the popular vote.

She would have to take every state by around 55%.

I don't think that is going to happen.

Especially since she keeps being discovered making false claims on the campaign trail.

I respect the fighting spirit, but at some point you start to look either foolish or mean or both when you stay in a fight you know you can't win.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:44:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's the electoral college (none / 0)

It's the super delegates.

It's the popular votes.

It's the fact that as far as she knows, Barack is not a muslim.

It's the bullets in Basra.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A win is a win. End of story. (none / 0)

A win is a win, sure. This particular win would just happen to be worth next to nothing.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

God doesn't need a chance (2.00 / 1)

but Clinton does.

Don't worry she and Bill will pull something out of their hats..... a Saturday night live skit, or a picture of Obama in muslim dress, something really cute, that will get her over the top.

Or else folks are getting tired of her inauthentic claims that with only her name on the ballot in Mich, she can pretend that was an 'election' and she won, and rant on endlessly about how voters are being disenfranchised.

If she had run her campaign differently she would stand a better chance.

Her dishonesty in pursuit of victory is turning people off.

Bullets in Basra.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:23:43 PM EST

Do you mean (none / 0)

bullets in Tuzla?  Basra's in Iraq.

(Unless there's some story I've missed since waking up.)


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:13:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Personally, she needs a blow-out (none / 0)

which would equal a blow-back against the Obama politics.

It doesn't look like it's going to happen.

I don't know HOW Obama will do in the GE because the Republicans are not backing McCain as much as others in the past.

We ALL know this - whoever follows Dubya is going to have (1) a helluva mess and (2) ALL the blame for the failures from a W admin that carry into the next admin squarely laid on his/her shoulders.

Hillary CAN handle that level of Republican and public crap.  Obama and his followers?


by Southern Mouth on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:25:29 PM EST

Obama has done well (2.00 / 2)

in handling Hillary's barrage.

The mark of true leadership and making the tough call. His speech on race was a mark of true courage.

Hillary's bullets in basra, is a mark of desparation. She has plenty of experience without making such blatant false claims.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has done well (none / 0)

You mean Tuzla, I think.  There really are bullets flying around in Basra.

There was eight year old poetry flying around in Tuzla.


You haven't seen impatient until you've seen a monkey waiting for a donut.
by bjones on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes..... (none / 0)

but she conflates bullets in Tulza with bullets in Basra to pump herself up for Commander in Chief role.

What shocking is how easily and well she lied. (See David Geffen)


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has done well (1.00 / 1)

"Obama has done very well handling Hillary's barrage". Right, poor political victim Obama being relentlessly pummeled by the wicked witch of New York. Obama began his campaign going negative against Hillary, continuing to paint her as 'divisive' and 'deceptive' as so many conservative talking heads have done in the past. As for Tuzla, small potatoes that Obama supporters refuse to pry their hands from. She has apologized for her misstatements and has aptly noted that she has visited 80 countries and has given countless speeches with regards to her foreign policy experience. The 'Tuzla' incident was also correctly depicted in her own autobiography. Gee, its a good thing that Mr. Hope and Change never misspeaks, conflates stories or is deceptive (financial relationship with Rezko, NAFTA-Goolsbee, hearing inflammatory remarks from Rev Wright, etc.)


by corunner26 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:28:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has done well (2.00 / 1)

Really? Goolsby?

After that whole Penn and Columbia thing (the lobbyist and nation, not ivy league schools), plus the refutation of that whole NAFTA-Canada thing by Canada, plus the whole lobbying for Nafta in her records thing... you're going to bring that up?

Really?

Chutzpah -- the other red meat.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:32:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama has done well (none / 0)

Really?  But I thought Bill and Baldy (Carvelle) said this process was nothing.

"I've worked on enough campaigns to know that the most aggrieved candidate rarely emerges victorious. And for all of the hypersensitivity we're seeing this cycle, this campaign has not been particularly negative or nasty compared with previous elections."


Obama supporter who is damn glad Hillary Clinton is a Democrat!!
by hootie4170 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 04:29:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

She can handle it? (none / 0)

Can she really handle it?  Her primary campaign's performance, led by folks like Mark Penn, has been terrible.  New scandals keep arising (despite her claim that she's already been "fully vetted"), and her negatives have gone nowhere but up.

And this is her own crap -- the Republicans haven't even started on her.  If she's this bad at handling her down crap, how will she handle Republican attacks in the general?  I just don't see how Hillary's weathered her controversies better than Obama's weathered his.


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:17:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's the same old story. (2.00 / 6)

Hillary and her supporters keep saying she will win the nomination and the rest of us keep saying 'How?'  Rinse and repeat.


No Way, No How, No McCain!
by GFORD on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:26:09 PM EST

Lies, damn lies and polls. (2.00 / 1)

I live in California.  In the weeks before Super-Duper Tuesday the polls said Obama had made it a close race and some even said he was ahead.

Then we voted.  Obama lost by 10 points.

SUSA nailed it, the rest mailed it.


by myiq2xu on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:26:34 PM EST

That was before (2.00 / 2)

Obama really came to be known well. And also many of the votes were cast by mail in ballot (some for Edwards).

I doubt that Hillary would win California in a redo.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was before (1.00 / 1)

LMFAO

You can't be serious.


by americanincanada on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:37:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was before (none / 0)

The most recent poll I have seen (there might be more recent ones) shows Obama winning CA and Clinton  losing.


by interestedbystander on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:42:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Source? (none / 0)

Got a link?  That's news to me.


John McCain: He flunked ECON 101.
by Shem on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Source? (none / 0)

It was Public Policy Institute of California in mid March, showed Obama beating McCain by 9 points, but Clinton ahead only 3% within MoE.  Sorry - haven't mastered actual links yet.


by interestedbystander on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:55:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Source? (2.00 / 1)

www.pollster.com
www.electoral-vote.com

Check it out.

And let's not forget that as late as January, CA was supposed to be a phenomenal Clinton blowout. Obama wasn't breaking 30% in polls. But Obama manged to tighten that race considerably in a short amount of time. If Obama had more time, and if early voting hadn't been such a huge factor, he could have made that state (my state) very, very close.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Source? (2.00 / 1)

Reality has a known Obama bias.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:34:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Source? (none / 0)

ROTFL!


A PROUD Hopium user!
by xodus1914 on Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 12:48:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

SUSA was off in Texas (none / 0)

so polls aren't always accurate.  

I still say that Hillary needs to win the state 15% or greater in order for it to be considered a "win" in the MSMS's eyes.

She was up by 20% and the media's narrative is that Pennsylvania is Ohio on steroids.  As a result, a win in the single digits will not cut it.


by puma on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:31:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lies, damn lies and polls. (2.00 / 2)

The final california count showed only a 8 pt margin.


by BDM on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:44:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lies, damn lies and polls. (none / 0)

SUSA nailed it because they correctly included the early votes, which Clinton would by a lot.  Had the vote been ALL on one day, most experts think it would have been either winning in a very close race 1-2%.  

The other BIG thing to remember is, Obama didn't have 6 weeks to spend in California nor could he concentrate the majority of his time or money.  The fact he can campaign much harder and spend more.  So really, PA is Nothing like Cali was.

The last thing to remember is Obama is now fighting a war of attrition.  He doesn't need the WIN as much as he needs it close.  The CW right now is if Clinton loses PA this is over.  but if she wins by single digits after squandering a huge lead, it will NOT help her at all in Indiana.  If Obama takes NC and Indiana, then this race is probably over as the pressure and the fundraising will probably dry up at that point.  Clinton needs to WIN these battles and win big.  Obama can afford a few losses as LONG as he keeps it close.  The more delegates he wins, the less she gets.  And the more he wins, the better the case to the SDs.  

That being said, I've noticed over the last week or two a change in this race.  Have you noticed the bitter nasty tone has been cut down and nearly out over the last 10 days or so.  The two candidates don't seem to be fiercely attacking any more.  Clinton hasn't made a Wright reference.  Obama ignored Penn's Columbian issue, Hillary's latest exaggeration and the tax returns.  Further they are both hitting McCain a lot more.  It might be due to her spiralling negatives and the fact both are trailing McCain in polls... but I'm beginning to wonder if the fix is in.. by that I mean that a deal was reached or forced that One will be VP and one POTUS.  I guess we shall see as things continue, but at this point, I am starting to think that the ticket will be Obama/Clinton in the Fall.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (1.00 / 1)

No blood for hubris, get off this site, you're not helping.


I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you?
by AnyDem2008 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:26:41 PM EST

calm down (none / 0)

this is nothing.

so the past 4 days have given you enough confidence to moderate who gets to post here eh?


BHO/HRC 08
by omar little on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:58:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think that Hillary has to win (none / 0)

Pennsylvania by double digits in order for it to be considered a "win" in the media's eyes.


by puma on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:27:56 PM EST

If she wins by three points (2.00 / 1)

the confetti will fall.

She will claim he spent all that money and I still won by a whopping three points.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:31:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Confetti may fall but in the media's eyes (none / 0)

Hillary fell short.  Also, her goal is to win the popular vote.  If she wins by 3points that is NOT going to help her with her goal of a "popular vote" win.


by puma on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:33:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agree (2.00 / 1)

but with three points she would still claim victory, and spin it as a 'he so outspent me thing'.

The only way she can win, is to come kind of close and try and make the case to supers that Obama is unelectable. (whatever that means to her)

If she had an ounce of class, she would support the church where Wright he counseled her husband speaks, and ask the country to stop this totalitarian religious Inquisition.


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:39:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confetti may fall but in the media's eyes (none / 0)

Well, according the media, Hillary falls short just about everywhere b/c she is a horrible person unlike the saintly Barak, Well, at least, your media narrative prediction would be consistent with coverage thus far.


by corunner26 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Confetti may fall but in the media's eyes (2.00 / 2)

The media-is-only-for-Obama meme is SO FEBRUARY 2008. Might as well accuse Obama of plagiarism again.

Now it's EVERYONE against Hillary. Including those a-hole voters conspiring against her by voting.


Fight the Smears!
by Lettuce on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 03:36:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

Unless Clinton loses PA, she is not going to drop out before June 3rd.  If she loses PA, she will drop out right after she gets a big loss in NC and a small loss/win in Indiana.

So everyone should stop calling for her to drop out, at this point, its pointless and annoying.

SurveyUSA is the only poll worth anything and right now they have her up by 12.  I think a 12 point victory is solid, but in my opinion she needs a 15-20 to do any real damage to Obama.

Mark Penn needs to figure out a way to suppress the youth vote, then she would win the rest of the contests.


by hillaryfor2008 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:28:08 PM EST

Wow! (2.00 / 1)

Mark Penn needs to figure out how to suppress votes?
 Nice call, from the every vote must count Clinton camp!


overthrow the government~participate
by missliberties on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:36:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

Mark Penn needs to figure out a way to suppress the youth vote, then she would win the rest of the contests.                

do u actually advocate that, or are you joking


by aaaa05 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:37:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

He's also got to figure a way to disenfranchise the White states.

Vermont isn't an important state, neither is Oregon


John McCain: Cheney with a temper
by wrb on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:45:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree that she has got to win >15% (none / 0)

in order to start chipping away at Obama's popular vote total.  

Hillary has only a few ways of winning over superdelegates at this point:  winning the popular vote, Obama appears to be unelectable, or Obama stumbles.

1. Obama stumbling: she can't do anything about except to wait it out.

2.  Obama being unelectable: is what she is trying to make her case with superdelegates.  So far that isn't working based upon the fact that Obama continues to get more superdelegates than she has gotten over the past few weeks.

3.  Winning the popular vote:  she needs to blow Obama out in states she is suppose to win like Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico, etc.  If it under 15% in Pennsylvania, that does not help her cause of reaching that goal.


by puma on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:38:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

  Really?  Suppress the youth vote?  Sounds like a recipe for disaster in November.


Jim Oberweis
by cilerder86 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:38:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

Suppress the youth vote?  LOL.  Yeah, that sounds like a winning strategy for the Democratic Party's future...


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:41:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

SUSA is not the only poll and they are not infallible. They showed Clinton winning MO by 3-4 pts and she lost by a pt. Poll's taken after the SUSA RESULT SHOW A CLOSER RACE.


by BDM on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; (2.00 / 2)

My guesses are:

That the more people talk about how narrow Senator Clinton's lead is the more points it is worth to her.

She is in the fight to win and even if she wins PA by only  5 points she will carry on fighting.

Even if she wins PA by 15 points she will not go on to win the nomination.


by My Ob on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:37:55 PM EST

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; (none / 0)

Any win, and she will stay in.  That's a given.  She can't drop out without a win by Obama in a big media contest.  At this point, there AREN'T too many of those left.  His best chances are either to win PA, or win IN and NC both.  he does one or the other and this is probably effectively over.  My personal bet is that she goes on EVEN if she lost PA, but if she LOSES PA, Momentum swings IN and NC to Obama and provided he wins both, THAT will be the end of the campaign.  She drops out, he wns the remaining primaries giving him a string of wins going into the GE.  


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:22:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (2.00 / 1)

Yes, as a Hillary supporter, if she cannot demonstrate a very strong lead ahead of Barack in PA then I think she should concede the race. This race has been set as the mandate for a long time and I think that needs to still be respected.

After that, we need to come together as Democrats because the next step is for the old guard to reach out to the new guard and figure out who in the new guard can bring future leadership to the party at the local level.


I will vote for Barack, I will vote for Hillary, I will vote for Obaminton or Clintobama, how about you? Thanks to AnyDem for the signature.
by BeThatBrighterDay on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:38:33 PM EST

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (2.00 / 2)

I don't care if she stays in all the way tot he convention.  What she needs to do if she stays in is calm down on the GOP-style attacks against Obama since it's nearly impossible for her to win the nomination.  Huckabee stayed in, but after it was clear he couldn't actually win anymore, he just talked about himself and didn't say anything to hurt McCain.  That is the position Hillary is now in.


NJ Hussein Independent
by NJIndependent on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 01:44:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

Exactly.. stay in as long as she wants, but continue on with dignity.  They've both toned down their attacks on each other recently, and it's been to the benefit of all involved.


by mikeinsf on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

to ape your post, the nasty sh*t she was spewing a few weeks ago has toned down from her side. Hopefully that will last.

thank goodness. I was at my breaking point with her. Not that I could have done anything about it but I'm glad she's come back to earth.


!
by alex100 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:27:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Good point (none / 0)

Hillary remaining in the race allows for the GOP to attack Obama less and they have LESS time to attack him.  Plus it gives Obama experience in going up against a strong machine like the Clintons.

Maureen Dowd has it right.  Hillary stayin in the race is makin Obama a BETTER candidate.


by puma on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:14:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (1.50 / 2)

You can't be serious "calm down on the GOP style attacks against Obama". Obama's campaign has been ruthless in their execution of character assassination of Hillary and playing the Media against her like a harp from hell...sounds pretty darn GOP like to me.


by corunner26 on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 02:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's PA Lead Shrinks; Can She Afford Less (none / 0)

Both have been guilty of this.


http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!
by yitbos96bb on Sun Apr 06, 2008 at 08:23:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ditto (none / 0)

if she cannot win in penn, then Obama's momentum is obvi here to stay. But I dont' see her doing it, as she and Bill will lose face. If she loses tho, better concede now than later, so her defeat is more likely forgotten then remembered come the August convention.


"there is nothing wrong with America that cannot be cured by what is right in America"-William Jefferson Clinton, forty-second Pres