Last week, I said Hillary Clinton's got the message that speaks most directly to Pennsylvanians. Even within the past week, the economy has continued to destabilize, revealing malfeasance by corporate actors and mismanagement by government regulators. We've seen this before - as our economy transitioned from a manufacturing base, Pennsylvanians were disproportionately left behind.
As a result, we're skeptical of Wall Street magic and sky-high promises. So Hillary's speaking the right language, and this week Obama started as well. A bunch of reporters picked up on his shift from talking to Pennsylvanians about lofty dreams to talking about more traditional issues.
That, plus his rigorous campaigning, has helped to drop Clinton's lead to a mere 5 points. At least one poll actually shows Obama ahead in PA. So its turned into a real race and my big question is this: if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, can she afford to win by less than 10-12 points?
I'd argue that she can't. Her momentum is already fading and a less-than-stellar win in PA would jeopardize her chances in the few remaining states on the map. A 5-point win is not enough - she's got to sweep this thing, and at least this week, it looks like Obama's gained the big Mo.
** Greg Palmer is the Publisher of Keystone Politics and the former Technology Advisor to Rep. Henry Waxman's Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
Let's face it - Barack Obama has run a great campaign, inspired a lot of people, and will probably win the nomination. So why is Hillary Clinton doing so well in Pennsylvania?
In short, it's the economy, stupid. Much of Pennsylvania was once supported by enormous manufacturing operations who supported entire regions of workers. Pennsylvanians still haven't fully recovered economically from the effects globalization had on manufacturing hubs.
In my hometown, some estimate that Bethlehem Steel once employed 40,000 people, and Pittsburgh has a similar history with US Steel. Those companies closed years ago, but the economic and emotional wounds run deep in Pennsylvania. As those large companies faded away, new businesses failed to take their place, and workers were left worrying about their pensions and the lifetime of health benefits they were promised.
Pennsylvania has been hurt further by NAFTA and other trade deals that are unfavorable to workers. Since 2000, we've lost over 200,000 manufacturing jobs. Walking downtown in many parts of our state can be a sobering experience - where mom and pop stores once thrived and profits were recycled back into small businesses, big box stores now suck dollars out of the local economy.
Barack Obama has been talking about "his story" and what it means for America, but that's not the sort of thing that resonates with Pennsylvanians. We're a pragmatic state because we've seen all too closely how the whims of so-called "visionaries" affect real workers, and how plans from self-professed Smart Guys can wreak havoc on entire regions.
Honestly, I don't have anything against Barack, and I'm kind of disappointed that Hillary hasn't gracefully bowed out since the numbers are so clearly against her. But I'd like to see the Senator from Illinois stop telling me his story and start telling me about how he's going to change the story for people in places like Pennsylvania.
Say what you will about her, but Hillary has done that and she's done it well. She's told us she recognizes that we got the shaft with NAFTA, and that to stay competitive we need universal healthcare.
Rather than show up in Philadelphia to give a big speech that most Philadelphians will never hear, Hillary walks around our towns and sees what has happened to places like Ohio and Pennsylvania. She's told us that she's learning the lessons along with the rest of us, and here in PA, that's something we can respect.
When it comes down to it, I know they have just about the same positions on everything. I just wish Senator Obama would take some time out from talking about himself to let us know.
** Greg Palmer is the Publisher of Keystone Politics and the former Technology Advisor to Rep. Henry Waxman's Oversight and Government Reform Committee.
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